MAINSTREAM NEWS MEDIA EXTRACTS:
The Carroll Anglo-American Trust and parallel Gerald 6th Duke of Sutherland Trust multi-billion dollar corporate identity theft offshore tax fraud bribery case has disclosed that the White House Communications Director is understood to be “closely monitoring” this affair of international importance.
Hard on the heels of the news media reports on the Gerald Carroll Trusts debacle well seasoned political observers in Washington DC have remarked that this case has highlighted the serious level of white collar organized crime penetration within the intergovernmental “cross-border” law enforcement agencies who are charged with the prosecution of criminal bankers accountants and lawyers who continue to pose a real “direct threat” to the economic national security interests of the United States of America the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Black Swan Theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise has a major effect and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-profile hard-to-predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history science finance and technology:
A) The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods – owing to the very nature of small
b) The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
Unlike the earlier philosophical “black swan problem” the “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events considered extreme outliers collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. More technically in the scientific monograph Lectures on Probability and Risk in the Real World: Fat Tails (Volume 1) Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as “stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability.”
Courtesy of Wikipedia the peoples free encyclopedia
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